Infectious Disease Models

Utilize the power of infectious disease models to inform your analyses and help you better understand the potential impact of your novel healthcare intervention.

You rely on realistic disease models to understand and communicate the value of your healthcare products to stakeholders. Static health economic models are a useful tool, but they can only assess the direct impact of an intervention. When developing medicines, vaccines, or diagnostics for communicable diseases, you need to consider additional factors such as human behavior and herd immunity to effectively demonstrate the full impact of your product. Infectious disease models can capture indirect effects and population dynamics to help you better understand transmission of a contagious disease and enable you to present your product to its full potential.

Understand how your intervention affects disease transmission, health outcomes, resource use, and costs.

diagram of communicable disease cycle

Infectious Disease Models

We have an expert team of modelers that includes researchers who have advanced degrees in operations research, industrial engineering, and mathematics with experience developing both simple and complex infectious disease models. We follow best practices established by ISPOR and WHO and have developed various types of communicable disease models to study the impact of new vaccines and treatments including:

  • Compartmental dynamic transmission models
  • Agent-based models
  • Simple epidemic forecasting models
  • Bernoulli models and other R0 estimators
  • Resource allocation/optimization models
  • Static cohort models

Therapeutic Area Experience

Our infectious disease models have been used for publication and to support health technology assessment (HTA) submissions and discussions with vaccine advisory committees such as the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) and the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI). Our therapeutic area experience spans a wide range of communicable disease research, including:

  • COVID-19
  • Ebola virus
  • HIV/AIDS
  • Seasonal influenza
  • Pneumococcal disease
  • Respiratory syncytial virus
  • Rotavirus
  • Varicella zoster virus

Featured Publications