Paret K, Beyhaghi H, Herring WL, Mauskopf J, Shane LG, Rousculp WD. Going forward: potential impact of protein-based COVID-19 vaccination coverage on population outcomes and costs in the United States. Vaccines (Basel). 2024 Jan 12;12(1):74. doi: 10.3390/vaccines12010074

Policymakers in the United States (US) recommend coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination with a monovalent 2023-2024 vaccine formulation based on the Omicron XBB.1.5 variant. We estimated the potential US population–level health and economic impacts of increased COVID-19 vaccine coverage that might be expected with the availability of a protein-based vaccine with simpler storage requirements in addition to messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccines. A Markov model was developed to estimate 1-year COVID-19–related costs, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths with and without the availability of a protein-based vaccine option. The model population was stratified by age and risk status. Model inputs were sourced from published literature or derived from publicly available data. Our model estimated that a 5–percentage-point increase in coverage due to the availability of a protein-based vaccine option would prevent over 500,000 cases, 66,000 hospitalizations, and 3,000 COVID-19–related deaths. These clinical outcomes translated to 42,000 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $16,141/QALY from a third-party payer perspective. In sensitivity analyses, outcomes were most sensitive to COVID-19 incidence and severity across age groups. The availability of a protein-based vaccine option in the US could reduce hospitalizations and deaths and is predicted to be cost-effective.

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