Patterson BJ, Buck PO, Curran D, Van Oorschot D, Carrico J, Herring WL, Zhang Y, Stoddard JJ. Estimated public health impact of the recombinant zoster vaccine. Mayo Clin Proc Innov Qual Outcomes. 2021 May 26;5(3):596-604. doi: 10.1016/j.mayocpiqo.2021.03.006

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the potential public health impact of adult herpes zoster (HZ) vaccination with the adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) in the United States in the first 15 years after launch.

METHODS: We used a publicly available model accounting for national population characteristics and HZ epidemiological data, vaccine characteristics from clinical studies, and anticipated vaccine coverage with RZV after launch in 2018. Two scenarios were modeled: a scenario with RZV implemented with 65% coverage after 15 years and a scenario continuing with Zoster Vaccine Live (ZVL) with coverage rising 10% over the same period. We estimated the numbers vaccinated, and the clinical outcomes and healthcare utilization avoided yearly, from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2032. We varied RZV coverage and investigated the associated impact on HZ cases, complications, and healthcare resource utilization.

RESULTS: With RZV adoption, the numbers of individuals affected by HZ was predicted to progressively decline with an additional 4.6 million cumulative cases avoided if 65% vaccination with RZV was reached within 15 years. In the year 2032, it was predicted that an additional 1.3 million physicians’ visits and 14.4 thousand hospitalizations could be avoided, compared with continuing with ZVL alone. These numbers could be reached 2-5 years earlier with 15% higher RZV vaccination rates.

CONCLUSION: Substantial personal and healthcare burden can be alleviated when vaccination with RZV is adopted. The predicted numbers of HZ cases, complications, physicians’ visits, and hospitalizations avoided, compared with continued ZVL vaccination, depends upon the RZV vaccination coverage achieved.

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